Justin Angell

Up, up, up, she goes! The cattle market on all classes of cattle seems to be higher every week. This week, the fat cattle at F&T brought in the mid $190s. For comparison sake, the top slaughter bull Tuesday brought $1.90 per pound. Almost $4000 on a kill bull! While there is a push for two dollar fed cattle in the five state feeding region, this week fed cattle in the livestock markets are already testing or slightly exceeding the $2 per pound mark.

Fall born calves are higher if they have shed their fuzzy hair. It seems like all the good program calves are worth over $3 per pound. Most lightweight steer calves bring way over three dollars per pound with the fly weight steers bringing close to $4 per pound. Heading into the heavier yearling kind of cattle, I’ve been told by people that would know, they expect 800 pound load lot steers to start bringing $3 per pound within 60 to 90 days. Cheap feed and high fed cattle is making this market a little bit Cray Cray.
The big questions are how high can it go and how long can it stay there? No one can answer those two questions definitively, but my opinion would be we are still on the front side of the upward curve.

I’m just now seeing a few replacement heifers being bought in different auctions across the Midwest and a few of the numbers would indicate some heifer retention.

Something else I’m seeing that would indicate we are on the front side of the curve, but heading towards a plateau, is the number of old bred cows and short breds going back to the farm. Even though the price of kill cows is at a record high, farmers are competing to buy older pairs and older bred cows.

The Packers are still winning the competition if the cows are so big that the pound market value generates too many dollars per head for a farmer/ rancher to justify that purchase. For those grazers too nervous about the abruptly higher stocking price this spring, some refused to buy high priced calves to background and graze, the old bred cows and old pairs (if you can find them) are a safer alternative.

If you graze cattle all summer and fall, only to possibly sell them in a lower market and they don’t make any money; the result is you’ve lost your grass. The way I see it if you don’t use the grass it’s gonna grow up, fall over, die and go away with no value anyway. Might as well take a chance on something.

In our business, there is always a chance you might lose your grass bill but your original investment should be safe. (“I am not concerned so much about the return ON my investment, as the return OF my investment” Will Rogers).

Considering the second question of how long this is going to last, the good news is I believe we have at least another year of these great prices before we have to reconsider future price action. According to the cattle cycle theory/history, heifer retention and old bred cows finding their way back to pasture are two of the first signs that we’re nearing the plateau before the peak.

Right now the cow calf producers are in the drivers seat because their product is relatively risk-free and becoming more valuable every day.

Optimism in the sales areas is palatable. Scuttlebutt around the barns is there’s a growing consensus that 800 pound steers could be bringing $3 per pound within the next 60 days! For now, everything is leaning in cattle producers’ favor. Lower supplies of feeders and fed cattle, tight supplies of beef coming out of the cow and bull plants, resilient beef demand, just to name a few. Add to the list of good news the abundance of feed – just look at the feed! For the first time in several years, cornerstone ration ingredients like corn and hay are plentiful over a wide area of the Midwest and becoming less expensive every week.

Very seldom is everything lined up for producers, but they certainly are now. Unfortunately, when you write things down, disclaimers have to be included… Geo political risk is at an all-time high and could derail us at any time. Domestically the road to a new Trump presidency will be rough and fraught with turns and twists. The only thing I’m sure about is that we should not let fear steal our joy. Enjoy this time because it’s our time and we deserve it.

So, let’s open a can of worms but then close it back up again. Anyone who knows me knows that I’m a Charolais guy from way back and if you see me buy cattle they’re most always cross-breds of some type. My farm looks like the island of misfit toys, but the one thing I intended for them to have in common is for my cattle to grow and get big. I’ve always loved good cattle no matter what breed or what color. That absolutely has not changed.

One day I was talking about how much better my colored cattle do than my black cattle, and an order buyer friend gently pointed out to me… “Justin you have to understand you probably never owned any really good black cattle”…. And I will give that to him. Anyone with a brain has to acknowledge that the Angus breed and specifically the CAB program has elevated beef and beef market not only in this country, but to the world. I knew CAB had become a significant market force when over 30 years ago I was in Lima, Peru at a stop-light in a taxi and on the corner was a big sign in English that said “we sell certified Angus beef here”.

So, Angus cattle, Angus breeders, Angus association kudos to you and thank you for your contributions to the beef industry. Now, however, we open the can of worms. Several months ago, I briefly mentioned this in a column with the expectation that I would have time to delve into an investigation to come up with facts, statistics, research project results, personal interviews, etc.. and to be truthful I’m sure I could do all that except I’m like everybody else. I’m just too busy to go down that rabbit hole. So since this is an opinion column, I’m going to give you my opinion.

After talking to people who know, and looking at some interesting numbers, and listening to even more interesting stories, I believe it’s important, that both registered purebred Angus producers and commercial people understand there is a genetic issue with some purebred/registered Angus cattle.

Apparently, years of Angus genetic concentration has resulted in the expression of a recessive gene issue that is being called Bovine congestive heart failure (BCHF). Basically, as cattle grow the genetics that we have infused into our beef system, we all know is for faster growth and bigger, better carcasses.

Apparently, this genetic flaw results in retarded growth of the pulmonary system in some animals after they achieve weights of approximately 1000 pounds or greater. Everything seems to be fine until that biggest best steer is put under some kind of stress. With excessive stress, a pulmonary system that is not developed or big enough to support the extra jumbo size body, the heart and lungs blow up and that high priced dude is dead, dead, dead! Example; I will use is heat stress. It seems to me a relatively new phenomena for heat to cause thousands of cattle mostly in feed yards to drop over dead. As I first learned about this BCHF problem, I thought back to all the pictures that I’d seen of the animals being drug out of the feed yards suffering heat catastrophes, the videos overwhelmingly show solid black cattle.

Coincidence? Maybe….

OK… After thinking about what you just read and the significance of it, I will answer a sure to be frequently asked question. If this is true, why haven’t I heard or read about it and some farm magazines publication or podcast? Unfortunately, in my opinion… in today’s world, I believe that most agricultural newspapers, magazines, publications podcast, etc. are only able to cash flow, function and exist due to the overwhelming abundance of cash in the Angus associations advertising budgets. Can you name any publication either traditional or digital that does not rely heavily on Angus association advertising money to stay viable and prosperous? I can only name one and that’s a little upstart regional monthly paper called The Cattleman’s Advocate. I believe that’s why you’re reading this here and nowhere else.

So I’m sure there are overly sensitive Angus breeders out there who will be offended by anything anyone says disparaging about the breed. That is not my intent. My intent is to be constructively critical and supply knowledge about this genetic information commercial cattleman should have available to them.

As an American and as a matter of principle, I believe suppressing and censoring legitimate information and opinions is wrong. Knowing this information that I believe to be true and accurate, if I did not relate this to readers, I believe would make me culpable and honestly, my conscience would not allow it.

So what is my conclusion? It is what it is and I can’t do anything to change it, and probably neither can you. As a commercial beef producer, my point of view is I think cross breeding is more important than ever. Hopefully the registered purebred producers’ point of view will be accepting purely constructive criticism from someone who loves the beef and cattle industries and wants them to be better and the people participating in them to be more prosperous. How can purebred breeders fix a problem that you don’t know exist?

In conclusion, I will let you know that I do not enjoy bringing negative news to this column and I am not going to dwell on any negative subject. I’ve said what I feel like I need to say, and I will probably not mention this again without excessive due reason. I would encourage hate mail and any supportive letters to be sent to my editor at The Cattleman’s Advocate. He assured me that if this generates enough interest, some of these letters will be printed next month or published on the website or I will be relieved of duty for being a PITA and generally just causing him grief.

So the cattle market is fantastic, we live in the best part of the best country in the world at the best time in history. Despite the storms around us “let not your heart be troubled”. Enjoy the cattle business while these good times last and also after that. I think that’s all for this month so I’ll see you at the sale.

Tuesday come see me
the place I’ll be
is at F and T.