Justin Angell

Buongiorno from Sorrento, Italy. Kelly and I arrived in the evening and there was a beautiful bright light on the western horizon.

I thought it was a sunset originally, but I think it may have actually been all the sale barns in North America on fire. Just when you think the market can’t get any higher, Fat Cattle run up to $2.50 and feeder cattle prices take another big step up at the time of the year when they ought to be taking a step down.

The feeder cattle market has been way out front for a long time, ahead of both fed cattle and bred cows and pairs. The rally in fed cattle is high enough to at least provide cattle bought five months ago a chance to break even.

What I am encouraged about is the fact that ranchers are finally trusting this market enough to go out and really give what bred females and pairs are worth, compared to what calves and yearlings have been bringing for many months.

For example, the rule of thumb was a third period young cow or heifer should bring what two 500 pound calves would bring. At over $2500 to $2800 per head that makes all good bred females worth at least $5000 to $5600.

Until recently, even though we all see the highlight reels and hear about market tops, nationwide there’s been plenty females bring less.

I will take this opportunity to remind everyone of the May F&T High Noon Cow Sale. If you’re looking for pairs to turn out on grass, we should have several pairs at that sale. Never been a better time to be in the cow business.

Assuming you can graze a good pair for $2 per day on a $5 per pound calf market, a calf gaining 2.5 pounds a day at a cost of $.80 per pound of gain makes $8 per head per day for 6 months.

2.5lb x 180d + 90lb birth = 540 lb @ only $5 is $2700
Pays for a $5400 pair in 24 months.

Look at the cow sale ad for F&T Livestock and the others in this Cattlemen’s Advocate.

One note of caution/opportunity I’d like to point out concerns the rate of herd expansion. Although USDA numbers do not show much herd building with heifer retention, I believe there may be stealth heifer retention skewing cattle on feed statistics caused by beef on dairy heifers being included in the cattle on feed numbers. The beef on dairy heifers on feed inflates the on-feed numbers making it appear there’s no heifer retention. I believe there’s a great deal of heifer retention (which we need, but next spring there may be more heifers bred in this country than there is cowboys to calve them.

In theory, especially if the weather is bad, bred heifer prices might take a step down in price November through February, while pairs in April and May will still bring prices compared to what we have now. I could be wrong, but if I’m right, it will be a big opportunity for some young people wanting to work.

The next big jump up in price will come with breeding bulls. Most pound bulls now bring more than what they originally cost.

At the top, everybody gets to take a turn, and we will all be making plenty of money until we don’t. I too have come to trust this market and expect to continue for the foreseeable future and beyond.

The exception is I do not trust geopolitical instability, and the instability in our economy. Just seems like there’s a lot of inevitable circumstances and conditions that someday we will have to reconcile.

Until then, don’t let anyone steal your joy and enjoy every moment of this fantastic Market.

That’s all I got for this month, I look forward to seeing everyone at the May 5 High Noon Cow Sale.

Caio!