Justin Angell

Finally fall weather has arrived. Leaves are turning, calves are soon weaned and harvest’s end is near. With the calf weaning, also comes cow pregnancy testing. Early indications in my neighborhood indicate a lot of open cows. “A lot” is not just a few extra, I’m seeing and hearing open percentages often from 30% to 50%.

Exactly what is happening is unclear, but something is definitely amiss. I’m leaning toward a combination of periods of extreme heat and in conjunction with spreading Theileria. I’d like to keep track of this, so as you pregnancy test your cows and you hear of neighbors’ percent opens, shoot me a text.

Nothing scientific, but this emerging story is important. Here’s why; Missouri is the third largest cow calf producing state in America.

In the last two months in a row, placements in feed yards have been at all-time lows. If Missouri‘s beef industry’s calf production falters, it could have significant downstream ramifications. I don’t mean to diminish our Illinois contributions, but Missouri information is easily accessible and will prove my point. Missouri has 1.9 million head of beef cows producing $1.6 billion in revenue for the state. If Missouri ends up with an average of 20% open, that will offset half of all the imports from Mexico. The bottom line is we are keeping a lot of heifers to breed, but if my hillbilly intuition is correct, we will not see any big increase in national cow inventory because of an increased culling rate. Only problem is the government is in charge of the numbers, and the government wants the numbers bigger, so the price is smaller.

They are starting to have some drought relief in the west and far west. Last week, we loaded three loads of young cows off a ranch in central Wyoming where it has been chronically dry all year. Selling their young cows, but keeping the heifer calves to restart production next year. Ironically, it rained for three days before we loaded, washing out one of the roads off the ranch.

Fed cattle prices remain stable at $1.20 to $1.26, but there are signs of a rising market percolating. Feeder cattle and calf demand remains strong with prices edging higher rather than traditionally lower fall calf markets. The pound cow and bull market is still $40 cwt off the early 2026 market. I’m not sure when this market will recover due to continued huge lean grinding meat imports and increased numbers of open cows coming to town.

Available after our publishing date, the cattle on feed report will be significant. Specifically, the placement numbers.

Will we have three months in a row of record low placements? Or the cynical me wonders if the figures will be massaged to show increased cattle inventories, causing a break lower in the market; similar to the latest USDA report on grain inventories and planted corn acres.

My South Dakota son-in-law told me that today (10/20/26) cash corn price with an $.85 basis at his South Dakota elevator is only $3.77 per bushel. The government can manipulate higher numbers, but they cannot manipulate more cattle.

Remember the USDA’s #1 job is to keep food cheap, not to help farmers. I remain optimistic that the first half of 2027 will be very good.

One other thing available after the printing date is the election results. By then, we will have an indication which road our citizens choose and down which path our fortunes lie. Hopefully there will be a complete rejection of socialism and socialist candidates. Socialism historically always hurts agriculture, especially land ownership.

One other item of interest. Brother Jon and I reached a mile-stone having our first million dollar week out of our little collection point in Centralia. I would like to thank everyone, both buyers and sellers that have come to us to assist them in both procurement and marketing cattle.

Our biggest growth area has been in heifer and cow procurement when someone calls us with what cattle they are wanting, we go find them. This service includes arranging logistics, paying out of state buyer commissions, providing down payment money and payment generally by wire transfers on or before delivery. We have a wonderful mid-western network of very talented buyers that allows us to provide some very high-quality livestock at reasonable prices.

We sell livestock on the medium to high end of the price range, but we try to sell only on the highest end of the quality range. Our whole sales theory being that if we sell someone a set of cows, those cows are going to be high enough quality that we will want to buy the calves back. Most purchases are generally to graze, then feed, but sometimes developed as breeding stock. I will also add to specialize in buying imported cows and bred heifers. Although these imported cattle take a little extra care the first year, generally speaking, the genetics are very good and can be bought in volumes. There are also some times ranch deals where purchase prices for the quality are especially good values. This month’s best value was three loads of two, three and four-year-old home raised ranch cows purchased and delivered for only a tick over $4000.

If a picture is worth 1000 words, that would make a video priceless. I’m working on getting stuff together for a web page that I hope will provide a little more clarity and allow smaller producers to buy with more confidence. That should be available for viewing hopefully in the coming year.

Print deadline is tomorrow so I guess that’s all that I have for this month — come see me at the auction!