Digging Deeper …
by Justin Angell
Hunkering down for winter is what I would normally be doing this month. This year however, I’m hunkering up for my trip down under. I don’t generally get excited about trips, but this one I am. It’ll be the first time in decades that I don’t have responsibilities tying me down. Most of us know the feeling even if we do go somewhere and all we think about is what we “ought to be doing at home and work.” Thanks to my very capable partners, daughter Savannah and her husband Justin Moore with three little helpers, Paisley, Sterling and Arlo, I have no apprehension about leaving at all. To say the least, Kelly and I are excited about this next adventure that begins December 27. While I’m gone, I’m going to stretch my technological abilities into Snapchat and Facebook during some of the highlights. If you are interested, shoot me a friend request and/or whatever Snapchat does to get us signed up together. The truth is Kelly will be doing most of my technical work, so fear not; she’s an expert.
There’s a lot of things going on out in the world that affect us. Believe it or not, Syria’s government collapsing at the same time Donald Trump comes to power is very bad for Russia, China, Iran, but good for world peace and stability in the region. With that stability will come lower oil prices that will ripple throughout the economies of the entire world.
The best example I can give you is Europe, specifically Germany, has been a world industrial powerhouse for decades until very recently. Russian invasion of the Ukraine, and the combination of a robust green agenda that closed both nuclear and coal fired power plants, and an over dependence of German industry on cheap Russian natural gas and oil has led to economic chaos and de-industrialization inside Germany.
In the short term, we will see a surge of investments from Europe, along with some European production moving to the United States where energy will be cheap. “Drill baby drill” along with an aggressive energy export policy (especially natural gas) will eventually solve this problem for Germany and other European industries. This policy change can also potentially provide a huge revenue source for America.
An interesting sidebar for investors would be the iconic Volkswagen (vwagy). For the first time in its long history, Volkswagen has laid off workers and the stock has dropped like a rock this past year. Do your own research, but it looks to me like an interesting gamble would be on Volkswagen (vwagy) because at this stock price ($9.28, at the time of this writing) at this level, assets of its many components is greater than its market cap. Don’t see that very often.
What about that Trump transition team? I’ve been paying attention for a long time and this is by far the most outstanding lineup of capable businesspeople I’ve ever seen installed. Although opinions vary, what extent the federal government will be cut will be the question of the hour after inauguration. This is important for us because I believe it would be impossible to have the fed cattle prices rising with a declining or crashing stock market. I’m curious how much money the Trump Vance Musk team can save through efficiency and how much waste and corruption can be deleted.
Also important, will be the rollback of regulation overload. Reduce regulation allows businesses to move people and resources from compliance to production. Cheaper energy, more foreign investment, business friendly tax policy, among many other things, will produce higher earnings, which will be essential in the next few years for all size companies and businesses. I can’t wait to watch to see what happens when American ingenuity, creativity, and industriousness are unleashed. This will be fun.
A review of international affairs is not complete without at least mentioning China. Chinese president Xi Jinping was invited by Donald Trump to his inauguration, but Xi has declined. A magnanimous gesture by President Trump, however, my personal belief is that Xi turned down the invitation because he is afraid to leave China due to growing political unrest. China’s economy is in horrible shape mostly due to a collapsing property market and China’s demographics are horrible. Compounding the economic problems, industry is leaving China because of this uncertainty and growing instability. I believe this deterioration of economic power has weakened the Chinese communist party, and military enough that Taiwan will be safe. Much of the money that escapes will eventually make it to American investments and stock markets. Unlike past efforts to smuggle money with physical gold or foreign currency I believe bitcoin will be clandestine and safely aid in this capital flight to safety. Once again, I’ll repeat my belief that some day bitcoin will be a significant financial instrument.
Two important subjects I won’t speak about because I’m not well-versed would-be `tariff and tax policy and the AI revolution happening now.
Finally, closer to home we have another epic government lie thrown in our face, this time not a pandemic but mystery drones. For our government to tell us repeatedly, they don’t know what’s going on or where they’re coming from is asinine. Somebody in the government knows what’s going on and why. If I were to speculate, I think that there is an active threat that is a clear and present danger. These drones are looking for someone or something. Could be facial recognition searching for an assassin or perhaps it’s something more like drones with uranium sniffers looking for an inauguration bound dirty bomb carried here across our open southern border by a “gotaway”.
Probably just coincidence that President Trump, who was traveling to three cities a day before the election, hardly ever leaves the “Southern White House” and Mar-a-Lago.
Individually all these things are just random new stories, but collectively these and other contemporary events will have an oversized bearing in our future that’s cattleman and Americans.